Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017
Valid 00Z Tue Apr 11 2017 - 00Z Thu Apr 13 2017
...Rain and thunderstorms for Texas and the Upper Midwest, slowly
spreading eastward over the next few days...
...A wintry mix of snow, rain, and ice will impact portions of the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday...
...More rain and higher elevation snow is expected to impact the Pacific
Northwest over the next few days...
An extensive cold front stretching from central Texas northeast through
the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon will continue a slow shift eastward
over the next few days while maintaining decent strength. Along and just
ahead of this front will be an area of good moisture and lift, conducive
to producing showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined a portion of the Upper Midwest/Upper
Great Lakes region as being in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm
Development through this evening, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch in
place. An area spanning from South-Central Texas northeast into the
Ark-La-Tex region is also highlighted in a Slight Risk area for this time
frame. Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center website
(www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov) for more information. The Weather Prediction
Center has also outlined portions of Southern and Eastern Texas as being
in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall conducive to producing flash
flooding through this evening as well. Please refer to the Weather
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
this threat. A flash flood watch has been issued in this area as a result.
A surface low pressure system will travel northeast with the front,
crossing the Great Lakes overnight as it continues Northeast. Abundant
moisture will be found wrapping around this low, on the backside of the
frontal passage and in the cold sector as a much cooler airmass shifts
southward from Canada. As such, this precipitation is anticipated to fall
as a mixture of rain, snow, and ice across the Upper Mississippi Valley
and Upper Great Lakes tonight into Tuesday before tapering off. A Winter
Weather Advisory is in effect through Tuesday morning for far northern
Wisconsin in response to accumulating snow and freezing rain chances.
Several low pressure systems are expected to impact the Pacific Northwest
over the next few days. One system that continues to move inland across
the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains will result in snow
showers through this evening, before tapering off overnight as it tracks
farther eastward. Otherwise, a more potent system should begin impacting
the shore by midweek, bringing mainly widespread rain from Northern
California northward into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin
starting Tuesday afternoon/evening. Highest elevations will likely see
snow.
Across the eastern U.S., mostly sunny and warm conditions are expected
ahead of the approaching cold front to the west through Tuesday. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive by the middle of the week.
Shower and thunderstorm chances will also begin filling back in across the
Southern U.S. during midweek as well.
Hamrick
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php