Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
416 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017
Valid 00Z Tue Apr 11 2017 - 00Z Thu Apr 13 2017
...Rain and thunderstorms spreading from Texas into the Upper Midwest,
slowly shifting eastward over the next few days...
...A wintry mix of snow, rain, and ice will impact portions of the Upper
Mississippi Valley and Upper Great Lakes through Tuesday...
...More rain and higher elevation snow is expected to impact the Pacific
Northwest over the next few days...
An extensive cold front stretching from central Texas northeast through
the Upper Great Lakes this afternoon will continue a slow shift eastward
over the next few days while maintaining decent strength. Along and just
ahead of this front will be an area of decent moisture and lift, conducive
to producing showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. The
Storm Prediction Center has outlined a portion of the Upper Midwest/Upper
Great Lakes region as being in a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorm
development through this evening, with a Severe Thunderstorm Watch also in
place. An area spanning from South-Central Texas northeast into the
Ark-La-Tex region is also highlighted in a Slight Risk area for this time
frame. Please refer to the Storm Prediction Center website
(www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov) for more information. The Weather Prediction
Center has outlined portions of Southern and Eastern Texas as being in a
Slight Risk for excessive rainfall conducive to producing flash flooding
through this evening in addition to the severe weather threat. Please
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
more information on this threat. A flash flood watch has been issued in
this area as a result.
A surface low pressure system will travel northeast with the front,
crossing the Great Lakes overnight through Tuesday. Abundant moisture will
be found wrapping around this low, located behind the cold frontal passage
and interacting with a much cooler airmass that is shifting southward from
Canada. As such, this precipitation is anticipated to fall as a mixture of
rain, snow, and ice across the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great
Lakes tonight into Tuesday before tapering off. A Winter Weather Advisory
is in effect through Tuesday morning for far northern Wisconsin in
response to accumulating snow and freezing rain chances.
Several low pressure systems are expected to impact the Pacific Northwest
over the next few days. One system that continues to move inland across
the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains will result in snow
showers across these areas through this evening, before tapering off
overnight as it tracks farther eastward. A more potent system should begin
reach the shore by midweek, bringing mainly widespread rain from Northern
California northward into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Great Basin
starting Tuesday afternoon/evening. Highest elevations will likely see
snow.
Otherwise, across the eastern U.S., mostly sunny and warm conditions are
expected ahead of the approaching cold front to the west through Tuesday.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms arrive by the middle of the
week. Some high temperature records, including daily high minimum
temperature and high maximum temperature, may be met or exceeded across
portions of the Northeast Tuesday. Record high minimum temperature records
may also be met or exceeded along the Northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic
coastline for Wednesday morning as well. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will eventually begin filling back in across the Southern and central U.S.
during midweek ahead of another developing system.
Hamrick
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php