Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 315 PM EDT Tue Jul 11 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 12 2017 - 00Z Fri Jul 14 2017 ...Severe weather and heavy rainfall possible from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the lower Great Lakes... ...Warmer than average temperatures will continue out West this week... An area of low pressure across the Northern Plains this afternoon will scoot eastward through the Upper Mississippi Valley and Midwestern states tomorrow. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead of this system, initially this evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley, and moving into the Upper Midwest, lower Great Lakes, and portions of the Ohio Valley Wednesday and Thursday. Conditions should be favorable to support severe weather and heavy to excessive rainfall. Both WPC and SPC have highlighted slight risks for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall/flash flooding. Please refer to the outlooks from these centers for additional information. The hot and humid airmass across the Central Plains this afternoon should moderate by Wednesday and especially Thursday as a cold front moves through. Across the West, however, expect temperatures as much as 5 to 15 degrees above normal to persist through at least mid-week. Elsewhere, diurnally driven monsoonal moisture will continue to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms to parts of the Southwest and into the Central Rockies and Plains. Return flow around high pressure anchored over the western Atlantic will also keep afternoon and evening showers and storms in the forecast across the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php