Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 26 2017 - 12Z Fri Jul 28 2017 ...Severe weather/flash flooding are possible from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic... ...Potential for flash flooding across areas of the Four Corners into the Southern Rockies... ...Heat advisories are in effect today across eastern Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas into the Ozarks... The large-scale pattern across the country keeps an upper ridge across the south-central U.S. which will keep the region hot and for the most part dry. To the north, a series of disturbances will be foci for organized thunderstorms each day with the threat moving from the Middle Mississippi Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic during the next 24 to 48 hours. This region can expect bouts of severe weather as well as the increasing potential for flash flooding, particularly in locations which have seen recent heavy rains. Considering precipitation the last 7 days, the most prone locations would be around the tri-state area bounding Iowa/Illinois/Wisconsin. The latest forecast seems to keep the better action to the south across southern Iowa/northern Missouri/central Illinois where 2 to 3 inches are expected through Friday morning. In addition to the daily rainfall threats, the accompanying frontal zone and enhanced cloud cover should keep temperatures about 5 to 10 degrees below average. With the upper ridge centered across the Southern Plains, clockwise flow around this circulation will steer abundant monsoonal moisture out of the subtropical Pacific into the Four Corners region. This should take aim at the higher terrain of the Southern/Central Rockies where a flash flood threat will exist, particularly in prone locations like canyons. As usual, much of the initial thunderstorm activity should congregate across the local mountains before migrating toward the valley floors. The storms likely will wane into the overnight hours given the loss of heating. Lastly, with temperatures ranging from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees, heat advisories have been hoisted up by local forecast offices from eastern Texas/Oklahoma/Kansas eastward into sections of Arkansas/Missouri as well as western Illinois/Kentucky/Tennessee. However, the true hot spot in the nation will be in its usual location, the Desert Southwest, with readings approaching 110 degrees the next couple of days. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php