Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 29 2017 - 12Z Thu Aug 31 2017
...An additional 6 to 12 inches of rainfall likely over flash flood
ravaged areas of the upper Texas coast...
...Isolated tornadoes are possible from the upper Texas coast into coastal
Louisiana/Mississippi on Tuesday...
...Heavy rainfall in response to a potential tropical disturbance to
impact the Outer Banks into the Delmarva Peninsula...
...More record heat expected across the western United States...
Tropical Storm Harvey continues to wreak havoc over southeastern Texas
into sections of southern Louisiana. Extreme rainfall totals have
accompanied this system with up to 3 feet of precipitation having already
fallen over areas of southeast Texas. With the forecast indicating another
6 to 12 inches likely over this region, some locations may be reporting
nearly 50 inches when it is all said and done. Suffice to say, any
additional heavy rainfall will only exacerbate the issues and make relief
efforts challenging. Over the next couple of days, Harvey is expected to
gradually nose back toward the coast making another landfall near Port
Arthur, Texas by early Wednesday morning. Its forward speed is expected to
pick up as an upper trough helps accelerate it toward the Ozarks. However,
until it moves sufficiently inland, flash flooding will remain a concern
from southeast Texas eastward into southern Louisiana/Mississippi with an
accompanying threat for isolated tornadoes. For the latest information on
the flash flood concerns ahead, please view the excessive rainfall
discussion at
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
While Harvey continues to dominate the national news, another potential
tropical system is in the works along the Carolina coast. Recent forecasts
indicate it could attain tropical cyclone status later today although this
remains to be seen. Regardless, expect heavy rainfall to impact areas from
the North Carolina Outer Banks northward into the Delmarva Peninsula
region. 2 to 4 inches of precipitation is forecast over this area with an
accompanying risk for flash flooding. The track of this cyclone will take
it farther offshore with gusty winds and rough seas remaining in its wake.
Additionally, rather cool conditions for late August will prevail along
the Eastern Seaboard with forecast temperature anomalies around 10 to 15
degrees below average. Even some highs in the 60s are likely over the
Mid-Atlantic and lower New England on Tuesday.
Across the western United States, persistent upper ridging overhead will
help enforce well above normal temperatures. A number of daily temperature
records are likely to be broken anywhere from California northward into
the Central Great Basin and interior Pacific Northwest as highs will be 10
to 20 degrees above average. Current forecasts suggest 100 degree plus
readings extending out of the Desert Southwest into the interior central
valleys of California.
Rubin-Oster
Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php