Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 AM EDT Mon Sep 18 2017 Valid 12Z Mon Sep 18 2017 - 12Z Wed Sep 20 2017 ...Hurricane Jose will produce dangerous surf conditions and possible heavy rainfall along portions of the East Coast... ...Severe thunderstorms possible across the northern Plains on Tuesday... ...Widespread showers and higher elevation snow expected throughout the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West... Hurricane Jose will take a northwestward track while staying well off of the East Coast of the U.S. during the short range period. However, despite it staying well offshore, dangerous surf and rip currents can be expected along the coastlines of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Light rainfall will hug coast from North Carolina to Delmarva on Monday. As Jose continues moving northward, precipitation will expand into the Northeast and southern New England coastlines by Tuesday morning. Expect rainfall amounts to increase during Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday morning--along with a slight risk of flash flooding. For the latest information regarding the track and impacts from Jose on the East Coast, please refer to the National Hurricane Center. A frontal boundary draped across the Great Lakes to the southern Plains will be the focus for showers and thunderstorms on Monday. As the boundary lifts northward as a warm front, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected near this front in the southern and central Plains in addition to the middle Mississippi Valley. There is a marginal risk of flash flooding across the Plains and into the middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The precipitation will move along the boundary from the Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. Expect high temperatures throughout the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes will be 10-15 degrees above average on Tuesday and into Wednesday. A strong cold front will sweep across the northern Plains on Tuesday and will bring a line of convection with it. There is an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms for the northern Plains especially on Tuesday evening--with the primary threat being damaging winds. See the Storm Prediction Center for more information. The strong cold front that will likely produce severe thunderstorms in the northern Plains will first bring widespread precipitation across the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. On Monday, this front will move past the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies as it moves toward the northern Plains. Behind the front, widespread precipitation will be possible for these regions along with higher elevation snow in the Cascades and Northern Rockies. As another front begins to approach on Tuesday which will continue the widespread rainfall and higher elevation snow in the northwestern U.S. Temperatures across these regions are expected to be 10-20 degrees below average--with high temperatures 5-10 degrees below average across California and the Central Great Basin. In contrast, temperatures in the interior of New England will continue to see temperatures 10-15 degrees above average through the short term period. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php