Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 351 PM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017 Valid 00Z Wed Sep 27 2017 - 00Z Fri Sep 29 2017 ...Heavy rainfall event unfolding across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains... ...Hurricane Maria will cause dangerous surf conditions and rip currents along the East Coast... A heavy rain event will continue to unfold for the rest of the day and into tomorrow. An upper level trough will dig over the Four Corners and pinch off into a closed low by Wednesday. This upper low is pulling moisture from both Pacific and Gulf of Mexico across parts of the Southwest and southern Plains. With plenty of instability in place along with copious amounts of moisture and a frontal boundary to focus these ingredients, heavy rainfall will occur primarily in New Mexico, West Texas, into South Central Texas and the Red River Valley. Most of the heaviest widespread rainfall will occur on Tuesday. However, heavy rainfall activity is expected in the western portions of South Central Texas and even Deep South Texas--but coverage will be less than what was experienced on Tuesday. Precipitation is also expected to continue on Wednesday across New Mexico and even southern Colorado--with very light snow showers expected along the highest peaks of the Central Rockies. By Thursday, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected from New Mexico to the Texas coast--with showers and higher elevation snow in the Central Rockies. Flash flooding will be a concern through Thursday especially in the southern Plains. Hurricane Maria will weaken while staying well off the East Coast today through Wednesday. Despite its distance from the coast, dangerous surf conditions along with rip currents will be possible from the beaches near Jacksonville, FL to the Northeast beaches. Light to moderate showers from Maria's outer rain bands will move over North Carolina's Outer Banks and even into parts of southeastern Virginia on Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, a cold front will approach from the west which will force Maria to turn eastward out to sea. See the National Hurricane Center for the latest information on Maria (www.hurricanes.gov). Elsewhere, light showers will quickly move over the Great Lakes as a cold front sweeps across these regions. The New England coast will see light showers by Thursday as the cold front approaches and Maria's moisture will also be on tap. Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the short term period in the eastern U.S.--most notably in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. Cooler temperatures are expected by the end of the week. Because of the rainfall activity in the southern Plains, much cooler temperatures will be felt. Finally, the West Coast will have high temperatures 5-10 degrees above normal through Thursday. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php