Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 AM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 Valid 12Z Thu Oct 05 2017 - 12Z Sat Oct 07 2017 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across the central U.S... ...Showers and thunderstorms will continue along southeast Florida and South Texas... ...Tropical Depression Sixteen forecast to track north through the Central Gulf of Mexico this weekend... A sprawling frontal boundary will span from the Northeast through the Great Lakes, Midwest and into the Central/Southern Plains. This will act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as copious amounts of moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico. The axis of the heaviest rain fall today will be from central Kansas to northwest Missouri, as well as, northeast New Mexico. For Friday, the axis of higher rainfall amounts shifts northward as this section of the boundary lifts as a warm front - spanning from central Kansas to northeast Iowa. Then over the Great Lakes on Saturday. These areas will have an increased risk for flash flooding. In addition to excessive rainfall, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Texas panhandle, western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas as having a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday. An easterly wave moves westward across Florida, widespread convection is expected over the next few days. The Atlantic coast of Florida will experience heavy rainfall this afternoon --with lighter rainfall along the Gulf Coast and into the Keys. As the wave progresses farther west into the Gulf, easterly flow will still bring deep tropical moisture over the state--fueling showers and thunderstorms across the state on Friday. Tropical Depression Sixteen located near Nicaragua will track north over the next few days into the central Gulf. The latest track from the National hurricane Center has it making landfall near the Alabama/Florida border late Sunday evening. Please refer to NHC for more specifics on the track, intensity and hazards with this system. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php