Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 102 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 Valid 00Z Fri Oct 06 2017 - 00Z Sun Oct 08 2017 ...Heavy rain and severe thunderstorms possible across the central U.S... ...Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase in coverage/intensity along the Gulf coast due to Tropical Storm Nate and a precursor surface low... A sprawling frontal boundary will span from the Northeast through the Great Lakes, Midwest and into the Central/Southern Plains. This will act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as copious amounts of moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the parent upper level trough. The axis of the heaviest rain through Friday will be from Kansas into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. These areas will have an increased risk for flash flooding. In addition to excessive rainfall, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Texas panhandle, western Oklahoma and Kansas as having a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday. A surface low moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico, spreading widespread convection westward along the Gulf coast for the next few days. Tropical Storm Nate located near Nicaragua will track north over the next few days into the central Gulf behind this initial low pressure area. The latest track from the National hurricane Center has it making landfall near the central Gulf coast on Sunday. Please refer to NHC for more specifics on the track, intensity and hazards with this system. Roth/Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php