Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Fri Oct 06 2017 Valid 12Z Fri Oct 06 2017 - 12Z Sun Oct 08 2017 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains into the Central Plains... ...Tropical Cyclone Nate will move northward over the Central Gulf of Mexico... ...Heavy rain possible over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Central Plains... A wave of low pressure over the Central High Plains along a front extending from the Northern Mid-Atlantic westward to the Central Rockies will move northeastward to the Upper Great Lakes by Saturday evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms along and near the boundary from the Great Lakes westward to the Central High Plains that will develop along and ahead of the front over parts of the Central/Southern Plains overnight Friday. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Upper Great Lakes A sprawling frontal boundary will span from the Northeast through the Great Lakes, Midwest and into the Central/Southern Plains. This will act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms over the next few days as copious amounts of moisture streams north from the Gulf of Mexico ahead of the parent upper level trough. The axis of the heaviest rain through Friday will be from Kansas into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. These areas will have an increased risk for flash flooding. In addition to excessive rainfall, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Texas panhandle, western Oklahoma and Kansas as having a slight risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday. A surface low moves westward across the Gulf of Mexico, spreading widespread convection westward along the Gulf coast for the next few days. Tropical Storm Nate located near Nicaragua will track north over the next few days into the central Gulf behind this initial low pressure area. The latest track from the National hurricane Center has it making landfall near the central Gulf coast on Sunday. Please refer to NHC for more specifics on the track, intensity and hazards with this system. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php