Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 259 PM EST Mon Feb 26 2018 Valid 00Z Tue Feb 27 2018 - 00Z Thu Mar 01 2018 ...Cold conditions to prevail over the western U.S. with snow levels dropping markedly... ...Increasing wildfire danger from southeastern Arizona into the southern high Plains... ...Heavy rainfall expected across the Arklatex into the Mid-South... With upper ridges centered over the eastern Pacific and western Atlantic respectively, a series of disturbances will track across the nation the next couple of days. The primary system of interest is currently diving down along the northern California coast which will draw another surge of well below average temperatures to the western U.S. Expected highs the next couple of days across California will reside in the 50s which is around 10 to 15 degrees below climatology. Many overnight readings could drop to near freezing across the Golden State although the major city centers will likely stay in the 40s. With the cold conditions moving through the region, expect snow levels to drop considerably, possibly below 2,500 feet. This would bring some accumulating snows in the high deserts of southern California while a few rumbles of thunder may be possible underneath the upper low center itself. Otherwise, the rest of the western states should remain on the chilly side with the better chance for precipitation across the Pacific Northwest, especially across the Olympics and Washington Cascades. As this mentioned system continues its southward trajectory toward southern California, persistent mid-level southwesterly flow across the Four Corners and southern high Plains will ensue. A well defined dry line is expected to form with rather warm, breezy conditions accompanied by low relative humidity values falling west of this boundary. With such ingredients in place on top of an area which is exceedingly dry as seen on the U.S. drought monitor, expect wildfire production to be an issue the next couple of days. An area from southeastern Arizona eastward into the southern Rockies/southern high Plains is currently in a critical or elevated risk based on the Storm Prediction Center fire weather outlook. Given the robust closed low ejecting out of the southwestern states, a surface frontal zone over the Gulf of Mexico will return northward as a warm front. With highly anomalous moisture following this path northward, abundant precipitation will likely spread across the Arklatex, Ozarks, and Mid-South regions. The heavy rainfall threat should commence by mid-week and continuing beyond this forecast period, all of which will occur over highly saturated soils from preceding flooding events. As such, additional flood and flash flood concerns will remain a focus in the upcoming days. The current forecast places an area of 1 to 2 inches of rainfall from Texarkana, Texas out toward Little Rock, Arkansas with activity advancing eastward toward western Tennessee as well as northern Mississippi/Alabama. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php