Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 254 PM EST Mon Mar 05 2018 Valid 00Z Tue Mar 06 2018 - 00Z Thu Mar 08 2018 ...Heavy snow and strong winds will continue for the Northern Plains through the Upper Midwest, with blizzard conditions expected locally... ...Showers and storms will occur ahead of a cold front from the Gulf Coast through the Southeast and Carolinas... ...Critical fire danger continues through the middle of the week in the Southern and Central Plains... ...Another nor'easter develops on Wednesday, spreading snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... An occluded surface low pressure system will be the main weather story over the next day or so. This low will make its way slowly through the Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday night and Tuesday and into the Ohio Valley by Tuesday evening. North and west of this low, heavy snow is forecast to continue for the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. The heavy snow will combine with strong winds to create the possibility of blizzard conditions, particularly for portions of the Northern Plains, where Blizzard Warnings are in effect through Tuesday. A cold front associated with the surface low will make its way eastward through the Tennessee Valley and Southeast on Monday night and Tuesday and slowly southward across the Western Gulf Coast. Ahead of this front, rain and thunderstorms are expected as moist air comes in from the Gulf of Mexico. Some locally heavy rain is possible, particularly for the western Gulf Coast. Showers will spread into the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Behind the cold front, dry air will come in and strong winds are likely. This will lead to continued critical fire danger for eastern Colorado through much of Kansas and Oklahoma as well as the Texas Panhandle through Monday night, and an elevated to critical risk will remain on Tuesday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect, and High Wind Warnings are in effect farther north across western South Dakota, Nebraska, and Kansas, as well as eastern Wyoming and Colorado. Southwestern California is also forecast to have elevated fire conditions on Tuesday, as the western U.S. is generally expected to be dry over the next couple days before a low pressure system approaches Wednesday evening. A surface low will move through the Carolinas Tuesday evening and begin strengthening Wednesday morning as it moves offshore. This low will strengthen quickly as it moves northeastward (as a nor'easter) just offshore of the Eastern Seaboard on Wednesday. Snow is expected from Pennsylvania northward through the Northeast, with totals of 6 to 10 inches possible for eastern Pennsylvania, eastern New York, and western Massachusetts through Wednesday evening, west of the major cities. Lighter snowfall is forecast for the Central Appalachians and back into the northern Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php