Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1226 AM EDT Tue May 01 2018 Valid 12Z Tue May 01 2018 - 12Z Thu May 03 2018 ...Snowfall accumulations possible in the northern Rockies... ...Severe thunderstorms expected across the Plains/Midwest through midweek... ...Heavy rain near the southern Iowa/Nebraska border tonight into early Wednesday... Valley rain and mountain snow is expected for portions of the Intermountain West, Great Basin and the Northern/Central Rockies through Thursday as a potent upper-level system shifts through the Southwest. Snow will be heavy at times, especially across the highest terrain of southwest Montana, western Wyoming, and southwest Colorado. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of the Southwest system over the adjacent High Plains and move east toward the Midwest/Central Plains by midweek. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a marginal to enhanced risk for severe weather for central Plains and the Midwest into Wednesday. As a frontal wave moves near the Kansas/Nebraska border, heavy rain is anticipated across eastern Nebraska into southwest Iowa Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning, where a slight risk of excessive rainfall is expected. On Wednesday, the severe weather threat edges southward into Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas near a wave of low pressure and a dryline to its south. On Thursday, moderate to heavy rainfall stretches from Texas northeast across the Midwest into the lower peninsula of Michigan near a slow-moving frontal boundary to the east and south of the weakening upper disturbance trekking across the central Plains. Much of the central U.S. will be warm in the first days of May, with afternoon highs approaching 10 to 15 degrees warmer than average. The warm, dry, and windy conditions will allow for an elevated to critical fire weather threat near New Mexico/the southern High Plains through Wednesday. Widespread red flag warnings are in effect across both of these regions. A Bermuda-like high pressure system remains across the Southeast and Atlantic through the next few days which will help temperatures warm up further across the Northeast Tuesday and Wednesday, with very warm conditions expected by Thursday. Roth/Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php