Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 325 AM EDT Sat May 12 2018 Valid 12Z Sat May 12 2018 - 12Z Mon May 14 2018 ...Severe thunderstorms will be possible on Saturday across portions of the upper Midwest, upper Ohio Valley and northern Mid-Atlantic states... ...Critical fire danger exists across the Southwest and southern Rockies... ...Rain and late season mountain snow expected across the Intermountain West and northern to central Rockies... Shower and thunderstorm activity will cover a large area including much the central Plains, Midwest and areas east across the lower Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic and southern New England over the next few days. Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along and north of a frontal boundary across the Ohio Valley to the northern Mid-Atlantic today. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted this region as having a slight risk for severe weather, with an area of enhanced risk over much of northern Maryland, southern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and northern Delaware. Heavy rainfall may be possible within any of these storms. Much of the northern tier states will be cooler through the weekend, as high pressure straddles this region from west to east. Meanwhile, across the South, the temperatures will be near or above normal. An exception will be over Florida where an area of disturbed weather associated with an upper low should bring plenty of clouds and a threat of locally heavy rainfall. The heaviest rains should be along the east coast of Florida where locally 2 to 3 inches of rain can be expected through Sunday. This will certainly keep temperatures relatively cooler as well. Critical fire weather threat will be remain over the next few days as locally hot, dry and windy conditions persist. Many of these areas are in an extreme to exceptional drought, and unfortunately most of this region is not expected to see any rain through the weekend. Rain and late season mountain snow though is expected farther north across the West with a large scale upper trough amplifying and closing off over the Intermountain West. The heaviest rain and snowfall totals should be over the northern and central Rockies, where moist easterly flow into the terrain will enhance precipitation for the favored upslope regions. Campbell/Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php