Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Sat May 12 2018 Valid 00Z Sun May 13 2018 - 00Z Tue May 15 2018 ...Severe weather and flash flooding for the Ohio Valley to northern Mid-Atlantic Saturday night... ...Warm from the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic southward, except a rainy Florida... ...Critical fire weather continues for Southwest to Southern Rockies... Rain and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday evening and night, as a slow-moving front provides a place for thunderstorms to form in the Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and northern Mid-Atlantic. Rain and thunderstorms training over the same locations could lead to flash flooding in portions of the Great Lakes region and into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and there is a slight risk of excessive rainfall in effect through Sunday morning. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced risk for severe weather for portions of the Central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. South of the front, temperatures will be much above average, with widespread 90+ degree high temperatures for the Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic southward, which could lead to widespread record highs on Monday afternoon. The exception will be Florida, where a developing low pressure system will lead to widespread rain across the state. The Atlantic coast of Florida is expecting 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next couple of days, keeping high temperatures in the low 80s for the peninsula. Farther west, a dryline will remain across West Texas over the next several days. West of this dryline, low humidity, gusty winds, and the ongoing drought will all combine to create favorable fire weather conditions in the Southwest and Southern Rockies. Critical fire weather conditions are forecast again on Sunday. However, the dryline will be a focus for welcomed scattered showers and storms through parts of Texas, particularly by Sunday night and Monday. The Intermountain West to Rockies will see rain showers and even snow in the higher elevations through Monday as an upper-level trough moves slowly over the western U.S. and a front lingers in the Central Rockies and near the Utah/Arizona border. Heavy snow is possible for parts of the northern Rockies. Temperatures will generally be 5 to 15 degrees below average for the Intermountain West, Northern Rockies, and into portions of the High Plains. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php