Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Sun May 13 2018 Valid 12Z Sun May 13 2018 - 12Z Tue May 15 2018 ...Severe weather with heavy rain possible across the Midwest through Tuesday morning... ...Warm from the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic southward, except a rainy Florida... ...Critical fire weather continues for Southwest to Southern Rockies... A majority of the western states will remain warm, calm and dry over the next few days. With low humidity, gusty winds, and the ongoing drought across the region, persistent fire weather conditions are expected across the Southwest and Southern Rockies; which necessitates the need for red flag warnings. The dryline over western Texas will be a focus for welcomed scattered showers and thunderstorms through parts of the Southern and Central Plains. Gulf moisture lifting northward over the frontal boundary stretched across the central U.S. will help generate widespread convection. Rain and thunderstorms training over the same locations could lead to flash flooding in portions of the Great Lakes region and into the northern Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe weather in effect for northern Texas/western Oklahoma and from eastern Iowa to northwest Indiana through Monday morning...and from Oklahoma to western Illinois through Tuesday morning. Lingering rain showers and mountain snow is forecast across portions of the Intermountain West and Rockies as an upper-level trough passes through. Some of the higher peaks within the Northern Rockies could have several inches of new snow by Tuesday morning. Temperatures averaging 5 to 15 degrees cooler than seasonal average can be expected for the Intermountain West, Northern Rockies and the adjacent High Plains. South of the front across the central U.S., temperatures will be much above average, with widespread 90+ degree high temperatures for the Middle Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic southward. These readings may lead to widespread record highs on Monday afternoon. The exception will be Florida, where a developing low pressure system will lead to widespread rain across the state. The Atlantic coast of Florida is expecting 2 to 3 inches of rainfall over the next couple of days, keeping high temperatures in the low 80s for the peninsula. Campbell/Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php