Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 411 AM EDT Sat May 26 2018 Valid 12Z Sat May 26 2018 - 12Z Mon May 28 2018 ...Severe weather possible over the next few days across the High Plains... ...Subtropical Storm Alberto will bring heavy rainfall across the central and eastern Gulf Coast in addition to the Southeast... ...Well above average high temperatures expected through the weekend from the Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... As a cutoff low drifts over the Great Basin, a surface front will move across the Intermountain West. With enough moisture and instability in place, showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the northern High Plains this afternoon. These storms could become severe--thus the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk over northeastern Montana and western North Dakota. By Sunday, the threat of severe weather shifts eastward as the cutoff low shifts eastward. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage by Sunday afternoon along the northern High Plains. By Monday morning, showers and embedded thunderstorms will extend into the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. Subtropical Storm Alberto will continue a general northerly path from the northwest Caribbean into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Copious amounts of moisture from Alberto will be pulled across Florida and the central Gulf Coast. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this morning mostly along the coast and expand across most of Florida and the Southeast by this afternoon. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will extend northward from the central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic. As Alberto moves closer to the Gulf Coast on Sunday, rain will continue throughout Florida into coastal Mississippi. By Monday morning, an axis of heavier rainfall is expected along the South Carolina coast. Flash flooding is a threat for most of the Southeast this weekend--with a moderate risk of flash flooding possible especially in the Mobile, Alabama area. Remember to turn around, don't drown. For specifics on flash flooding, please see WPC's Excessive Rainfall Outlook. In addition to the potential for tornadoes with this system, check the Storm Prediction Center (www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov). For the latest on the track and intensity of Alberto, see the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov). Temperatures heading into the holiday weekend will vary in terms of respect to climatology depending on the region. The Southeast will generally be below normal due to the wet conditions from Alberto. The Great Basin and West Coast will also be below normal as a cold front and showers and thunderstorms sweep across the area. Areas from the northern and central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes will be nearly 20 degrees above normal throughout the weekend! Expect high temperatures throughout these areas to be in the mid to upper 90s. West Texas can also expect temperatures to reach the century mark--with these temperatures being 10 to 15 degrees above normal. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php