Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 337 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 Valid 00Z Mon May 28 2018 - 00Z Wed May 30 2018 ...Subtropical Storm Alberto will spread heavy rainfall across the central Gulf Coast states, and parts of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley... ...Severe weather possible across portions of the Plains... ...Record high temperatures to continue early this week from the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest... Based on the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Subtropical Storm Alberto is expected to make landfall as a tropical storm sometime Monday morning near the Florida panhandle, and continue moving northward through Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley by Tuesday evening. In the meantime, bands of heavy rainfall will continue spreading across much of the Deep South tonight and through Tuesday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the center of circulation from the Florida panhandle into Alabama and central Tennessee, with a secondary axis of higher rainfall totals expected across the Carolinas and into southeast Virginia along a surface trough. A slight to moderate risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding is highlighted in WPCs excessive rainfall outlooks encompassing much of Florida, the Southeast, the central Gulf Coast states, and into portions of central Tennessee. As is typically the case with tropical systems, there is also a slight risk for isolated tornadoes mainly across Florida, as per the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center. For the latest information on the track and intensity forecasts of Alberto, please refer to the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov). Farther west, showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand across portions of the Intermountain West and the Plains states tonight. A surface low and cold front moving slowly eastward into the high Plains should provide a focus for heavier rainfall and strong to severe thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted much of the northern and central Plains, as well as back into Wyoming, within a marginal to slight risk for severe weather. WPC also has a marginal to slight risk for excessive rainfall across parts of the Intermountain West and the High Plains, in association with the upper level trough/closed low itself. By Monday, showers and thunderstorms are also expected to develop along a frontal boundary draped across the upper Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this system, strong ridging from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest will keep record warmth in the forecast through at least Monday. Afternoon high values are expected to be well into the 90s, and possibly approaching or exceeding 100 degrees in some places. This is 10 to 20 degrees above normal for this time of the year, and records from the southern Plains to the upper Midwest will be challenged or broken. Heat advisories are in place for some places across western Texas and southern Minnesota and far northwest Iowa. By Tuesday, the ridge begins to break down as the Western upper level low edges eastward, which should bring a slight cooldown to the region. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php