Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 PM EDT Mon May 28 2018 Valid 00Z Tue May 29 2018 - 00Z Thu May 31 2018 ...Subtropical Storm Alberto will continue spreading heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across the Gulf Coast and into the Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley by Tuesday... ...Slight to enhanced risk for severe weather across parts of the Central Plains tonight and on Tuesday... ...Record heat expected to persist into the middle of the week for parts of Texas... Based on the latest forecast advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Subtropical Storm Alberto will make landfall this afternoon in the Florida Panhandle with gradual weakening of the storm expected as it moves inland over Alabama and into the Tennessee Valley and eventually the Ohio Valley by Wednesday. Bands of heavy rainfall and gusty winds are ongoing this afternoon across parts of the Southeast, with a slight risk for tornadoes as well. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be near the center of circulation as it tracks northward towards the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. WPC continues to monitor a moderate to high risk for flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, eastern and central Alabama, and far western Georgia through tonight. A slight risk is highlighted for the Tennessee Valley and into the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday and into Wednesday. A secondary axis of rainfall maxima is also possible across parts of the central Appalachians and the Carolinas along a surface trough to the northeast of Alberto's circulation. Elsewhere, general rainfall amounts should be modest in comparison to the Gulf Coast into the Tennessee Valley, but it will likely remain quite wet over all of the Deep South into the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic. In advance of an expansive upper level low over the Great Basin, a north-south oriented front and dry line over the southern/central High Plains will continue to be a focus for active convection tonight and on Tuesday. Developing storms across this region will be capable of producing severe weather and heavy rainfall. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center has parts of the central/southern high Plains within a slight to enhanced risk for severe weather this evening, moving eastward into central Oklahoma and central Kansas by Tuesday. General scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected across parts of the intermountain West and into the upper Midwest/Mississippi Valley. Ahead of this system, upper level ridging anchored over Texas will keep record breaking warmth in the forecast through mid-week. Afternoon high values could be in the high 90s to low 100s, which is 10 to 20 degrees above normal. The very warm, potentially record breaking temperatures across the upper Midwest today should subside somewhat Tuesday and Wednesday, but afternoon values are still expected to slightly above normal. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php