Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 354 AM EDT Tue May 29 2018 Valid 12Z Tue May 29 2018 - 12Z Thu May 31 2018 ...Subtropical Depression Alberto to spread heavy rainfall from the Deep South northward into vast sections of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and interior Carolinas... ...Severe thunderstorm threat looms for much of Oklahoma/Kansas into southeastern Nebraska today... ...Record overnight warmth likely generally to the east of Alberto's forecast track... After making landfall late yesterday evening over the Florida panhandle, Alberto has weakened to a subtropical depression and should gradually lose all tropical characteristics by later this evening. Regardless of these changes in characterization, it will remain a heavy rainfall producer with an accompanying flash flood risk. Several inches of rain is likely to fall from northern sections of Alabama/Georgia northward across western Tennessee/Kentucky into southern Illinois. This generally follows the path of Alberto where deep convection will likely erupt near its center, particularly where sufficient instability exists in areas which receive more solar insolation. An additional threat area will be over the interior Carolinas given further lift aided by the local topography. Given tropical moisture in place over these mentioned regions, intense rainfall may lead to areas of flash flooding, particularly in locations where soils are already saturated. For the latest storm totals from Alberto, please visit the latest storm summary at: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html. Elsewhere across the Eastern Seaboard, unsettled conditions should continue with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. An elongated upper trough currently drifting eastward across the northern/central High Plains has been responsible for triggering widespread convection over the middle of the country. While the parent surface front should gradually dissipate, a series of other convergence axes will provide impetus for convective activity today over large sections of the central U.S. Based on the latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook, an enhanced risk is in place over much of central Oklahoma/Kansas with all threats possible. Expected slow cell motions should also afford a threat for localized flash flooding over this mentioned region. Farther west, in advance of a broad trough sweeping through the Pacific Northwest, a slow moving frontal zone will spread light to moderate showers and thunderstorms over the Central Great Basin into the Upper Intermountain West. While severe weather is not forecast to be as prominent as the Great Plains, there is a risk for some severe criteria thunderstorms, particularly over eastern Idaho into southwestern Montana. Overall, expected rainfall amounts are not tremendous by any means given a rather limited moisture pool. Concluding the month of May, above average temperatures should continue to dominate the country with a chance for more daily records to be broken. First considering afternoon highs, widespread numbers between 100 and 105 degrees along the Rio Grande River and over west Texas should spark some records. However, on the larger scale, several locations could see record breaking numbers when considering warm overnight lows. In particular, two areas of the country seem to be in this boat, the Upper Midwest as as well locations east of Alberto's cyclone track. Numbers seem to depart by around 10 to 15 degrees from climatology in most cases. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php