Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Wed May 30 2018 Valid 12Z Wed May 30 2018 - 12Z Fri Jun 01 2018 ...Heavy rainfall likely along the track of Tropical Depression Alberto while moving toward the Upper Great Lakes as well as the interior Carolinas... ...Primary severe weather threats should generally focus in western Oklahoma with a separate area back into Idaho/Montana... ...Vast warmth in the overnight hours will support widespread temperature records across the eastern half of the U.S... Currently a tropical depression, Alberto continues to lift northward across the western border of Tennessee and Kentucky. It remains a focus for organized convection near its center as well as in its periphery as evidenced by the widespread thunderstorm activity early this morning over the Deep South. A separate axis of enhanced rainfall also has focused over the interior Carolinas given favorable orographics. Given substantial tropical moisture accompanying this slowly weakening tropical cyclone, intense rainfall capable of producing flash flood conditions will remain a possibility, particularly along Alberto's forecast track. Likewise, with a history of such issues already noted in North Carolina, expect additional rainfall to exacerbate the situation. Although the track of Alberto will take it into the upper Great Lakes by later this evening, unsettled conditions should generally be expected across the entire eastern third of the nation. Along a stalled frontal zone arcing east-northeastward away from Texas panhandle toward western Oklahoma, this will be a favorable corridor for severe thunderstorms. Based on the latest Storm Prediction Center convective outlook, all of the usual threats will be possible with the set up migrating eastward into the lower Ohio/upper Tennessee valleys by the following day. Elsewhere, a persistent upper trough sitting over the Pacific Northwest will continue to churn out a series of impulses through the central Great Basin into the upper Intermountain West/Northern Rockies. Organized convection will ensue over southern/eastern Idaho with gradual progression into central to eastern Montana. Damaging winds and large hail should be the primary hazards with some of the more robust thunderstorm activity. While near to slightly below average temperatures can be expected along the West Coast given the presence of the upper trough and enhanced marine layer, it will truly be the converse for locations to the east. This will be particularly noted with the warm overnight temperatures given rather high dew point temperatures in place due to Alberto's presence. As such, widespread daily records are likely to be broken each morning anywhere from the Southern Plains eastward to the mid-Atlantic and lower Great Lakes. Portions of the upper Texas coast could stay near 80 degrees tonight. While afternoon highs will likely not afford such widespread records, the Lone Star state will in fact support such occurrences as readings soar above the century mark. Expected temperatures should reach the 100 to 105 degree range across west Texas and along the Red River which would be 10 to 15 degrees above late May climatology. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php