Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 AM EDT Fri Jun 01 2018 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 01 2018 - 12Z Sun Jun 03 2018 ...Severe weather likely across portions of the northern and central Plains today moving into the middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday... ...Continued wet conditions to keep flash flooding a concern across the mid-Atlantic into the weekend... ...Elevated to critical fire weather threat today across the southern Rockies and high Plains... ...Warm overnight temperatures could break records for many locations east of the Rockies... A rather robust upper level trough sweeping through the northern Intermountain West today will support active convection across the northern Intermountain West/Rockies and into the Great Plains. The attendant cold front ahead of this trough moving into the northern/central Plains will be a key focus for severe weather by this afternoon and evening across these regions, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting a slight to enhanced risk from far northern Kansas to the Dakotas. The primary threat with any storms that do develop will be large hail and damaging wind, particularly across eastern Nebraska and central North Dakota, but a few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out. Plenty of moisture pooling along this boundary will also lead to a flash flood risk as well, as highlighted in the WPC Excessive Rainfall outlooks. The severe weather and flash flood threat will move eastward with the front into the middle Mississippi Valley by Saturday. An incredibly moist atmosphere remains locked in place the next few days across much of the Eastern U.S. underneath of persistent upper level troughing. Multiple impulses moving through in the flow aloft will support daily afternoon thunderstorms, which will keep flash flooding a concern through the weekend, particularly for the mid-Atlantic where additional organized heavy rain events will be possible. As a result, WPC has placed portions of the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic within a slight risk for excessive rainfall/flash flooding. Warm and dry conditions across the southern Rockies and high Plains on the backside of a dry line will lead to an elevated to critical fire weather threat on Friday, as highlighted in the latest fire weather outlooks issued by the Storm Prediction Center. Widespread red flag warnings are in effect for these regions today. Conditions should improve by the weekend though as an upper level low and cold front move through the region. As for temperatures across the country, locations from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and the Eastern states will be quite warm and muggy, with well above normal temperatures on both Friday and Saturday. The big story with this warmth however will be the very warm overnight temperatures, with widespread lows in the 70s expected which could break records for overnight high minimum temperatures for dozens of locations. Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php