Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Thu Jun 14 2018 Valid 12Z Thu Jun 14 2018 - 12Z Sat Jun 16 2018 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms, along with flash flooding, will likely to develop across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley through Sunday... ...Flash flooding and severe weather possible Thursday into Friday for the northern Plains to the upper Mississippi Valley... ...Moisture from Tropical Storm Bud may begin to impact portions of the Southwest by Friday... Showers and thunderstorm coverage over the Northeast will decrease this morning as the central low and associates cold front pulls offshore; although new development will be possible as a draping cold front descends from southern Canada. Convection will continue across the Deep South today as the boundary lingers across the region. The western portion of this boundary will lift as a warm front across the Central Plains this evening, which will provide focus for additional showers and storms. Showers and thunderstorms will spread from the Intermountain region to the northern tier states today as a strong cold front crosses the Rockies. Conditions will be ripe for strong convection from eastern Montana to the Upper Mississippi Valley. The Storm Prediction Center as identified much of this area as having a slight risk for sever storms, with a smaller section having an enhanced risk, while WPC is highlighting a slight risk for flash flooding across parts of the northern Plains to the upper Midwest. See the outlooks from these two centers for additional details on the severe weather and flash flood threat. Ahead of this system, ridging in the upper levels will keep temperatures very warm, with afternoon highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal possible, particularly across the northern and central Plains. Elsewhere, warm, dry, and windy conditions across parts of the Great Basin will create favorable fire weather conditions. Numerous red flag warnings are in effect across southern Utah and western Colorado. Meanwhile, the heatwave across the Southwest should subside as moisture ahead of Tropical Storm Bud begins impacting parts of the Southwest by the end of this week. Refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest information regarding the track and specific impacts of Tropical Storm Bud. Campbell/Santorelli Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php