Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Valid 12Z Fri Jun 15 2018 - 12Z Sun Jun 17 2018 ...Strong thunderstorms along with heavy rain expected across the northern tier states through the weekend... ...Wet conditions for the Gulf Coast and parts of Desert Southwest... Scattered to widespread convection will fire across much of the north-central U.S. as a strong low pressure system tracks through the Plains this weekend. Some of these storms will be strong or severe and capable of producing high rainfall rates. The risk for flash flooding will be elevated from Montana to northern Michigan where 1 to 3 inches of rain may fall by Sunday. WPC has much of the region identified as having a marginal or slight risk for excessive rainfall. Much of this same area was identified by the Storm Prediction Center as having a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. Tropical moisture associated with the weakening Tropical Storm Bud will transport northward into southern Arizona and New Mexico. Anomalous moisture levels for this time of year, prior to the typical onset of monsoon season, will result in scattered to numerous showers and storms, with the possibility that some could produce flooding issues. WPC has this area in a slight risk for excessive rain. Across the eastern U.S. from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S., a high quality airmass will govern the weather pattern through Friday before a significant warming trend ensues by the weekend. Highs in the 70s and 80s, and low humidity are expected behind a Canadian cold front, with sunny to partly cloudy skies. Campbell/Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php