Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 226 PM EDT Fri Jun 15 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 16 2018 - 00Z Mon Jun 18 2018 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain and areas of flash flooding can be expected from parts of the Central and Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... ...Wet conditions for the Gulf Coast and Southwest... ...Dangerous heat and humidity will be in place this weekend over much of the Midwest and spreading to the East Coast by early next week... Several rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are expected to impact a fairly large area of the Central and Northern Plains and east over the to Upper Midwest through the weekend as multiple waves of low pressure lift up along a frontal zone draped across the region. Some of the thunderstorms may severe during especially the afternoon and evening hours, and there will also be concerns for flash flooding given the multi-day threat of heavy rainfall and slow movement of the front across the Midwest. In fact, locally several inches of rain will be expected and especially areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Storm Prediction Center and Weather Prediction Center accordingly have issued Slight Risk areas for the respective hazards of severe weather and flash flooding. Meanwhile, to the south and east of this front, there will be high heat and humidity building as many areas across the Central and Southern Plains and the Midwest are expected to see above normal temperatures with daytime highs well into the 90s to near 100 degrees. In addition to the heat, the humidity will be quite high, and a combination of the two will drive dangerous heat indices that will make it feel as hot as 105 degrees. Some major Midwest cities to be impacted by this include Minneapolis, MN; Chicago, IL; and St. Louis, MO. Some of this high heat and humidity will be arriving along the Eastern Seaboard by Monday including New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Tropical moisture associated with weakening Tropical Depression Bud will advance northward across northwest areas of Mexico and into areas of the Southwest U.S. where it has been very warm and dry of late. More specifically, the remnants of Bud are expected to bring heavy rainfall across areas of southern and eastern Arizona, southeast Utah, Colorado and New Mexico. This moisture arrival is well ahead of the typical onset of the monsoon season, be it should be largely beneficial as it will help to alleviate some of the ongoing drought and wildfire concerns. Nevertheless, the rain may be heavy enough to cause concerns for flash flooding as well. There will be unsettled weather developing also for the Gulf Coast states and especially areas of southeast Texas and Louisiana by Sunday and Monday as a surge of tropical moisture in off the Gulf of Mexico and the arrival of a trough of low pressure help to ring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. Locally several inches of rain will be possible, and this areas will need to also be monitored closely for potential flash flooding. Orrison Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php