Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 AM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 16 2018 - 12Z Mon Jun 18 2018 ...Strong to severe thunderstorms along with heavy rain and areas of flash flooding can be expected from parts of the Central and Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest... ...Wet conditions for the Gulf Coast and Southwest... ...Dangerous heat and humidity will be in place this weekend over much of the Midwest and spreading to the East Coast by early next week... Much of the northern tier states will have several rounds of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms as multiple waves of low pressure lift up along a frontal zone draped across the region. Abundant moisture lifting over this boundary will keep convection firing over this region. The Storm Prediction has highlighted a swath from Nebraska to northern Minnesota and Wisconsin as having a slight risk for severe weather - with an enhanced threat today across central Minnesota. Given the expected slow progression of this front and multiple rounds of rainfall, there will be an increased threat for flash flooding in nearly the same locations of the expected severe weather. WPC has a moderate excessive rainfall outlook in effect for northern Wisconsin and the surrounding area today with a slight risk spanning much of the Northern High Plains to Upper Mississippi Valley through Monday. Local amounts of several inches may occur across areas of Minnesota, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Hot and muggy conditions is forecast across much of the Southern and Central Plains, as well as, the Midwest over the next few days. Afternoon highs will generally range from the 90s to low 100s and with the high humidity, this may increase the risk for heat exhaustion or stoke for susceptible individuals. Some major Midwest cities to be impacted by this include Minneapolis, MN; Chicago, IL; and St. Louis, MO. Some of this high heat and humidity will be arriving along the Eastern Seaboard by Monday including New England and the Mid-Atlantic. Post-tropical cyclone Bud is rapidly weakening however moisture associated with the system will continue to transport into the Desert Southwest. Heavy rainfall is expected to fall across areas of southern and eastern Arizona, southeast Utah, Colorado and New Mexico. This moisture arrival is well ahead of the typical onset of the monsoon season, be it should be largely beneficial as it will help to alleviate some of the ongoing drought and wildfire concerns. Nevertheless, the rain may be heavy enough to cause concerns for flash flooding as well. WPC has a slight risk for excessive rainfall in effect for portions of this region. There will be unsettled weather developing also for the Gulf Coast states and especially areas of southeast Texas and Louisiana by Sunday and Monday as a surge of tropical moisture in off the Gulf of Mexico and the arrival of a trough of low pressure help to ring numerous showers and thunderstorms to the region. Locally several inches of rain will be possible, and this areas will need to also be monitored closely for potential flash flooding. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php