Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 400 AM EDT Sat Jun 23 2018 Valid 12Z Sat Jun 23 2018 - 12Z Mon Jun 25 2018 ...Enhanced risk for severe thunderstorms across the Central Plains into northern Oklahoma on Sunday... ...Increasing threat for flash flooding over the Central Plains on Sunday... ...Above average temperatures expected along the West Coast into the Desert Southwest this weekend... ...Fire weather concerns across areas of the Four Corners back into northern California.. While a prominent upper low across the Ohio Valley considerably weakens, the focus will shift back to an impressive array of disturbances currently sweeping across the Pacific Northwest. Such a conglomerate of energy should organize further resulting in a well established upper trough crossing the Central Rockies by Sunday morning. Widespread convection should erupt within the moist and unstable air mass entrenched over the Central Plains. The latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center presents an Enhanced Risk for severe thunderstorms over much of Kansas down into the northern fringe of Oklahoma. Primary hazards should be large hail and damaging winds although a few tornadoes will also be possible. In addition to the threat for severe convection, flash flooding may also pose issues, particularly over much of Kansas where 2 to 4 inches of rainfall is expected during a 24-hour period ending Monday morning. Of course, isolated pockets of heavier amounts are likely where thunderstorms either stall or repeat over similar locations. Before this primary event takes shape, it will prove to remain active over a couple other sectors of the country on Saturday. First, a wavy frontal zone encompassing eastern Oklahoma through the Ozarks and into the Tennessee River valley will remain an impetus for an organized band of convection. A Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms extends over much of this boundary which covers locations from north-central Texas eastward into the Atlanta metro area. Given the amount of moisture intercepting this front, some hydrologic issues may unfold where higher rainfall amounts are observed. Elsewhere, ahead of a weakening upper low across the Ohio Valley, unsettled conditions will continue to affect much of the northeastern U.S. this weekend. Persistent upper ridging across the southwestern U.S. will promote rather hot conditions over the region the next couple of days. This should initially focus from southern Nevada west-northward into central/northern California with eventual expansion into the Pacific Northwest by Sunday. Currently, excessive heat warnings and heat advisories span these former regions as expected high temperatures sit around 10 degrees above climatology. As usual, the most extreme will concentrate over Death Valley, California where a high of 120 degrees is expected on Saturday. In addition to the widespread heat, a wildfire concern is in place across southern Nevada as well as over patches of northern California. The most pronounced threat should be across southern Utah and northern Arizona where a Critical Risk for wildfire production is advertised by the Storm Prediction Center. This tends to be collocated with where extreme drought conditions have remained a major concern. Rubin-Oster Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php