Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Mon Jun 25 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Jun 25 2018 - 12Z Wed Jun 27 2018 ...A risk of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms will exist across the Plains and into the Mississippi Valley the next few days... ...Heavy rain expected over the Carolinas... A front will stretch from the central Plains to the Carolinas over the next few days and will be the focal point for convective activity. On Monday, heavy rainfall will develop along the surface low that will lift from the central Plains to the middle Mississippi Valley. A cold front pushing southeast across Oklahoma will also assist in firing off thunderstorms by this afternoon. Meanwhile, the front draped along the Carolinas and into the Tennessee Valley will provide focus for heavy rainfall--increasing in coverage by this afternoon. These areas of convection will continue overnight--with heavy rainfall likely especially in the mid to lower Mississippi Valley. As the surface continues to slowly move eastward into the Upper Midwest by Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will advance into the Upper Great Lakes and western portions of the Tennessee Valley. A slight risk of severe thunderstorms is expected for both Monday and Tuesday mostly across portions of the middle Mississippi Valley and western parts of the Ohio Valley. Flash flooding will also be a threat for these areas in addition to some areas of the southern Plains. Heavy rainfall will be continuous across the Carolinas beginning Monday afternoon and lasting through the rest of the short term period. As the front is draped across these states, there will be plenty of moisture to tap from. Thus, steady convective activity is expected--and flash flooding will be a concern through at least Tuesday. Severe thunderstorms will also be a threat--though only for today. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php