Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 PM EDT Wed Jun 27 2018 Valid 00Z Thu Jun 28 2018 - 00Z Sat Jun 30 2018 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding expected for the north central U.S. on Thursday... ...Heavy rain and thunderstorms in the Northeast with 2-3 inches of rain possible... ...Hot temperatures forecast for the middle of the U.S., spreading to the East by Friday... ...Fire weather expected for the Central Great Basin and southwestern states... As an upper-level trough moves through the northwestern U.S., a surface low will begin strengthening in the Northern High Plains. These features will lead to numerous thunderstorms on Thursday, which could be strong to severe--an enhanced risk of severe thunderstorms is in place from the Storm Prediction Center for the Northern Plains on Thursday. A slight risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding will be in effect there on Thursday as well, since rainfall over 2 inches is possible, with locally higher amounts. A low pressure system will continue tracking through the Lower Great Lakes overnight Wednesday and into the Northeast on Thursday. Near and ahead of this low, heavy rain is expected Wednesday night and Thursday for the Northeast, with 2-3 inches of rain forecast. Flash flooding is possible there through Thursday. The cold front associated with this low will sweep through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Thursday night, drying the atmosphere and ending rain chances. South of the front in the Southeast, scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the end of the workweek. Storms could be severe, especially for the Tennessee Valley and into the Southern Appalachians Wednesday night. An upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen in the central U.S., which will lead to hot temperatures there, even above average for this time of year. The highest temperature anomalies are expected to be in the Central Plains on Thursday, with temperatures up to 15 degrees above average; a few record high temperatures could be set there. By Friday, temperatures of 10-15 degrees above average are forecast in the Midwest. Heat indices will be over 100 degrees south of these areas as well. Widespread Heat Advisories are in effect for parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, with Excessive Heat Warnings for portions of Kansas and Missouri, including the Kansas City area. As hot, dry weather continues in portions of the West, and wind increases near a front, conditions will be right for wildfires to form. This will be exacerbated by the ongoing drought in the area. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked portions of the Great Basin and the Southwest as having a critical risk of fire weather on Wednesday and especially Thursday. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for this region as well. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php