Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Thu Jun 28 2018 Valid 00Z Fri Jun 29 2018 - 00Z Sun Jul 01 2018 ...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding likely through Thursday night for the Northern Plains... ...Hot temperatures continue for the central U.S., spreading eastward on Saturday... ...Critical fire weather conditions remain over the Four Corners region through the end of the workweek... An upper-level trough, a surface low, and plenty of instability will all combine to produce dangerous thunderstorms on Thursday evening and night over the Northern Plains. Moderate risks of both severe weather and flash flooding have been issued by the Storm Prediction Center and here at the Weather Prediction Center respectively. Hail and wind are the primary severe threats, though tornadoes are possible as well. Though storms will generally be moving quickly, flash flooding could occur over areas with low flash flood guidance (that cannot handle very much rainfall). More rain and thunderstorms are forecast for the north central U.S. on Friday, and a slight risk of severe weather will be in effect. The southeastern U.S. is expecting scattered thunderstorms through the end of the week as a stationary front lingers there. A slight risk of severe weather is forecast for portions of the Southeast and Tennessee Valley through Thursday night. Rain will be on the increase in the Midwest on Friday and Saturday as a cold front moves eastward through that area. Rain should end in the Northeast by Thursday evening. An upper-level ridge across the middle of the country will lead to temperatures that are 10-20 degrees above normal for the Midwest on Friday. Widespread Heat Advisories with some Excessive Heat Watches and Warnings are in effect through parts of the Plains, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. The heat will spread eastward to the Northeast on Saturday, and temperatures in the 90s could break records in portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast. Another hot spot is forecast in the interior of California on Saturday, with high temperatures over 100 degrees. On the other hand, the upper-level trough will usher in temperatures that are 10-20 degrees below average in Northern Great Basin and Northern Rockies on Friday, spreading into the Northern High Plains on Saturday. Hot, dry, and windy weather as well as preexisting drought conditions will create an environment favorable for wildfires in the Four Corners region over the next couple of days. The Storm Prediction Center has critical risks outlooked for this area through Friday, and widespread Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php