Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 353 PM EDT Fri Jun 29 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Jun 30 2018 - 00Z Mon Jul 02 2018 ...Severe weather and flash flooding possible for parts of the Plains to the Midwest... ...Hot and humid weather will persist through the weekend across the eastern half of the country... ...Fire weather conditions continue through Saturday for portions of the West... A surface low pressure system and its associated cold front, as well as an upper-level trough to the west, will lead to continued rain and thunderstorms for the Plains to Midwest this weekend. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk of severe weather outlooked for the Northern and Central Plains to the Upper Mississippi Valley through Saturday morning, and for the Upper Midwest to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday as the storms move eastward. Rain of 1-3 inches is forecast for much of Iowa northeastward to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Some of these areas have seen prodigious rainfall recently which saturated the ground, so a moderate risk of excessive rainfall/flash flooding will be in effect for portions of Iowa on Saturday and Saturday night. The southeastern U.S. is also expecting rain and thunderstorms through the weekend with low pressure in the region. Rainfall of 1-2 inches is possible, particularly for the Florida panhandle. A few strong storms could be possible, but flash flooding is unlikely there. Additionally, strong thunderstorms could occur in New England on Saturday evening and night. Some scattered thunderstorms are forecast through the weekend in the Southern High Plains as well. Ahead of the upper-level trough, an upper-level ridge has taken hold over the eastern part of the U.S., ushering in hot and humid weather with high temperatures in the 90s and heat indices over 100 degrees from the Southern Plains all the way to the Northeast. On Saturday, the Midwest is forecast to see high temperatures up to 20 degrees above average. On Sunday, some record highs are likely to be broken in the Lower Great Lakes region to the Northeast. Widespread Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect. However, the Intermountain West to Northern and Central Rockies will see temperatures up to 20 degrees below normal on Saturday, in accordance with the cool upper-level trough. Hot, dry, and windy weather in areas of ongoing drought means the threat for wildfires remains in the Four Corners region. The Storm Prediction Center has outlooked eastern Utah, western Colorado, and far northern Arizona in a critical risk through Friday evening, and Red Flag Warnings are in effect. Hot temperatures and low humidity in interior northern California will increase the threat for fires there as well. An elevated threat of fires remains on Saturday for the Four Corners region and parts of northern California. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php