Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 Valid 00Z Sun Jul 08 2018 - 00Z Tue Jul 10 2018 ...Severe weather and locally heavy rain forecast for North Dakota and Minnesota... ...Showers and thunderstorms expected for the southern tier of the country... ...Hot and dry weather continues in the West, though moderating somewhat... A cold front slowly moving through the Northern Plains will provide a focus for thunderstorm development on Saturday night and Sunday in the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest. The Storm Prediction Center has slight risks of severe weather in place for North Dakota and northern Minnesota through Saturday night, and for parts of Minnesota on Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, but widespread flash flooding is not expected. Fronts in the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast will linger through the beginning of the week, leading to continued showers and thunderstorms there. Plenty of moisture also moves into Texas, and these regions will see rain that is most widespread on Sunday. Locally heavy rain is expected, with some flash flooding possible as some storms produce lots of rain in a short period of time. 1-2 inches of rain is possible across parts of Texas and Louisiana, with locally higher amounts. The Southwest and into the Four Corners region will see some relief from the heat as a monsoon pattern develops there, leading to increased rain showers and thunderstorms for Sunday and Monday. A few storms could be severe in the Southwest on Sunday, according to the Storm Prediction Center. After several record-breaking hot days in California and the Southwest, temperatures will still be warmer than average for the beginning of the week, but not quite as sweltering. Some Excessive Heat Warnings will remain in effect on Sunday in Nevada and California, but will not be as widespread. Warmer than average temperatures are forecast for the Intermountain West, with the Northern Great Basin seeing high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average by Monday. On the other hand, the Southern Plains to Southeast will be slightly cooler than average, with showers, thunderstorms, and clouds. In fact, with the northern tier of the country warmer than normal and the southern tier slightly cooler than normal, high temperatures will be approximately 90 degrees on Monday almost everywhere, other than the cooler Pacific Northwest and warmer Southwest, as well as higher elevations. Tropical Depression Three off the coast of North Carolina is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Sunday morning, but is not expected to make landfall in the U.S., as a stationary front will keep it east of the coast. It will linger offshore for the next couple of days though, so showers and thunderstorms are forecast for the Outer Banks in particular, which could see up to an inch of rain through Monday. High surf and rip currents are likely there as well. Please see the National Hurricane Center for more information about this system. Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php