Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 AM EDT Sun Jul 08 2018 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 08 2018 - 12Z Tue Jul 10 2018 ...Severe weather and locally heavy rain forecast for North Dakota and Minnesota... ...Showers and thunderstorms expected for the southern tier of the country... ...Hot and dry weather continues in the West, though moderating somewhat... Strong thunderstorms, along with heavy rainfall, will be possible today across the north-central states as a cold front slowly tracks eastward. This boundary will provide a focus for organized convection, with the best potential for severe storms over portions of eastern North and South Dakota, Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. The Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk identified for this area, please refer to the webpage for additional information on the severe weather threat. The area of showers and thunderstorms will shift to the Great Lakes region Monday and Tuesday as the front continues to advance. Widespread flash flooding is not expected. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will persist across much of the southern tier and Mid-Atlantic states as deep moisture draws into a stalled frontal boundary. Plenty of moisture also moves into Texas, and these regions will see rain that is most widespread this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rain is expected, with some flash flooding possible as some storms produce lots of rain in a short period of time. 1-2 inches of rain is possible across parts of Texas and Louisiana, with locally higher amounts. Monsoonal moisture advecting northward will result in increasing rain showers and thunderstorms through Monday for portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region. Conditions may be favorable for a few thunderstorms to become severe across southern Arizona. SPC has a slight risk area in effect. Tropical Depression Three is forecast to strengthen to tropical storm strength today and develop into a hurricane Chris by late Monday/early Tuesday. Although its track is expected to remain over the Atlantic Ocean, rain bands may keep portions of the Mid-Atlantic wet through midweek. The Outer Banks could see around 1 inch, possibly higher with this system. High surf and rip currents are likely there as well. Please see the National Hurricane Center for more information about this system. The hot airmass over southern California and the Southwest will slowly moderate over the next few days, however forecast temperatures will continue to be warmer than seasonal average. Some Excessive Heat Warnings will remain in effect on Sunday in Nevada and California, but will not be as widespread. Warmer than average temperatures are forecast for the Intermountain West, with the Northern Great Basin seeing high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above average by Monday. On the other hand, the Southern Plains to Southeast will be slightly cooler than average, with showers, thunderstorms, and clouds. In fact, with the northern tier of the country warmer than normal and the southern tier slightly cooler than normal, high temperatures will be approximately 90 degrees on Monday almost everywhere, other than the cooler Pacific Northwest and warmer Southwest, as well as higher elevations. Campbell/Tate Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php