Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Tue Jul 10 2018 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 11 2018 - 00Z Fri Jul 13 2018 ...Tropical Storm Chris expected to strengthen and linger off the Carolinas through tomorrow... ...Severe thunderstorms expected across the Northern Plains this afternoon... ...Heavy rainfall and flash flooding possible across portions of the Southwest and southern Rockies... Tropical Storm Chris is expected to strengthen to a hurricane sometime this evening while lingering off the North Carolina Coast. The track of this system will move it farther out to sea--thus most of the strong winds and heavy rainfall will be well off the coast. However, rip currents, strong surf and coastal flooding will be a threat along the coastline from the Mid-Atlantic to Southeast. For the most current information regarding Chris, visit the National Hurricane Center (www.hurricanes.gov) and the local forecast office for individual watches/warnings/advisories. Severe weather will be possible today in portions of Montana and North Dakota. A strong front will sweep throughout these regions and provide focus for thunderstorms. These storms will begin firing off this afternoon and last into late evening and into tonight. The Storm Prediction Center has issued an enhanced risk of severe weather specifically in northeast Montana and northwest Montana. As the cold front moves eastward the northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Wednesday, thunderstorms will ignite across most of the Upper Midwest--where there is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms. There is also a potential for flash flooding on Wednesday in northeast Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage every afternoon through the short term across the Desert Southwest. Heavy rainfall along the terrain could lead to flash flooding in addition to flood prone areas. By Thursday, heavy rainfall will continue in the Southwest but also begin to spread into the southern and central Rockies. There is a slight risk of flash flooding in the Southwest today and Wednesday, with the slight risk shifting eastward by Thursday along the Rockies. Elsewhere, the strong cold front that will sweep over the Plains will also bring showers and thunderstorms with it. Another cold front will press southward across the Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday and will enter the Southeast on Thursday. Rainfall along the front can be expected in the southern portions of the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon and continuing along the southward trek of the front into Thursday. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php