Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 313 PM EDT Tue Jul 24 2018 Valid 00Z Wed Jul 25 2018 - 00Z Fri Jul 27 2018 ...Additional heavy rains will continue to raise flooding concerns across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday... ...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible for portions of the northern and central Plains to the upper Midwest... ...Dangerous heat to continue across the Southwest and portions of the West Coast... ...Risk of heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding for the central/southern Rockies and central High Plains... Moist southerly winds ahead of a broad area of low pressure in the Southeast will continue to support periods of showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast into Wednesday. These storms will have the potential to produce additional heavy accumulations, raising further flooding concerns. Given the recent heavy rains and saturated soil conditions, flash flooding remains a concern, with WPC indicating a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall from eastern North Carolina northward into central Pennsylvania and the Southern Tier region of New York Tuesday evening into early Wednesday. On Wednesday into early Thursday, as the low over the Southeast is expected to weaken and lift out to the north ahead of an approaching frontal system, the greater potential for heavy rain is expected to shift further to the northeast, with WPC indicating a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall from portions eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey into parts of Upstate New York. By late Thursday, the heavy rainfall threat is expected to wane as the deeper moisture shifts east out over the Atlantic. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near an organizing area of low pressure moving east from eastern Montana into the Dakotas Tuesday evening into the overnight hours. This low is expected to move into the upper Midwest on Wednesday, with a well-defined trailing cold front dropping into the mid Mississippi valley and central Plains. SPC is highlighting the potential for storms developing near and along the front to become severe, with a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms extending from the central Plains into far southern Minnesota on Wednesday. In addition to showers and storms, this system will usher in cooler temperatures to region, with seasonal to below-normal temperatures extending south from the northern Plains and upper Midwest on Wednesday into the central Plains and mid Mississippi valley on Thursday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday across portions of the central and southern Rockies into the adjacent plains. These storms may cause flash flooding concerns, especially over recent burn scar areas. While portions of the central U.S. continue to moderate, dangerous heat will remain an issue across parts of the western U.S. With temperatures expected to remain well above their seasonal averages, excessive heat warnings remain in effect through Thursday from southern Arizona westward into southern Nevada and southern California. Heat advisories are in effect further to the north through in the interior valleys of central and northern California into western Oregon. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php