Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 AM EDT Sun Aug 05 2018 Valid 12Z Sun Aug 05 2018 - 12Z Tue Aug 07 2018 ...Unsettled weather expected across the North-Central U.S. for the rest of this weekend and into the first part of the work-week.... ...Fire weather concerns continue across the western U.S. through this evening... ...Excessive heat to return to the Southwest... The northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will have a reprieve from the widespread, wet pattern it's been in of late as high pressure builds over the region. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the Southeast and southern Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of days as warm, moist air streams into the region. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop across the central U.S. as a series of low pressure systems pass through. Enough instability and a moisture will be present to increase the heavy rain potential and raise concern for severe weather and flash flooding, mainly across the Upper Mississippi Valley. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of this region in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorm development through the end of the weekend; with a slight risk spanning from eastern Wyoming to Michigan. The Weather Prediction Center has also outlined a marginal risk of excessive rainfall and potential flash flooding across portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and a slight risk from northeast Nebraska to southwest Wisconsin. The threat for severe weather and excessive rainfall will shift eastward towards the Upper Great Lakes region by Monday. Persistent dry and windy conditions over the West will have maintain an elevated risk for fire danger. Portions of the Pacific Northwest, the Great Basin, the Central Rockies and California still have Red Flag Warnings in effect/Wux. Even with thunderstorms in the forecast for a portion of these areas this afternoon/evening, conditions are so dry that any lightning could spark new wildfires. Air Quality Alerts also remain in effect for portions of the western and southwestern U.S. as ongoing wildfires continue to infuse copious amounts of smoke into the air. As a strong ridge builds back across the Southwest over the coming days, expect the excessive heat to make a return. Excessive Heat Watches are in effect across large portions of the Southwest and southern California for Sunday through Wednesday as temperatures are expected to climb to well over 100 degrees. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php