Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 355 PM EDT Sun Aug 12 2018 Valid 00Z Mon Aug 13 2018 - 00Z Wed Aug 15 2018 ...Moderate risk of flash flooding in West Texas... ...Heavy rain expected for parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic... A mid-level closed low centered over Texas will continue the wet pattern of most of the state in addition to other parts of the southern and central Plains. The axis of heavy rainfall will concentrate in the Big Bend of Texas today where there is a moderate risk of flash flooding for both days. As the upper low pivots northward by Tuesday, heavy rainfall will shift toward the central Plains and parts of the middle Mississippi Valley. A slight risk of flash flooding will be possible. Another mid-level closed low over the Ohio Valley will also play a role in firing off showers and thunderstorms across the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Expect most of the activity to occur in the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas today. A slight risk of flash flooding has been issued for most of Virginia and eastern North Carolina. By tomorrow, an occluded front will lift northward from the Mid-Atlantic to the Northeast. Another round of convection will occur on Monday for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast--moving into New England by Tuesday with the front. Heat-driven thunderstorms will continue across the Southwest, Great Basin and parts of the Intermountain west over the next few days. Some of these thunderstorms could produce heavy downpours that may lead to flash flooding--especially in favorable terrain and urban regions. The heat wave that has impacted the Intermountain West and northern Plains will continue across eastern Montana and parts of North and South Dakota. However, a strong cold front that brought temperatures down across the Pacific Northwest will bring much needed relief by tomorrow. On Tuesday, high temperatures will begin to rebound into the 90s for the Pacific Northwest once again. Fire weather conditions remain critical across the Intermountain West and Great Basin through Monday. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php