Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Sat Aug 25 2018 Valid 12Z Sat Aug 25 2018 - 12Z Mon Aug 27 2018 ...Showers and thunderstorms expected across the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes today... ...A slight risk of severe storms Sunday into Monday for portions of the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Upper Great Lakes... ...Dry and windy conditions across the West will continue to fuel fire concerns... A frontal system sill move northeast from the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes today, while losing considerable strength. The center of low pressure will stay intact, however, as will a strong pull of warm moist air from the Gulf of Mexico. This will lead to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the region during the day. The Weather Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of excessive rainfall for a portion of northwest Missouri and western Illinois through today, with a marginal risk across portions of the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley as well as the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, another frontal and low pressure system will begin evolving upstream, gaining strength as we go through the weekend. This system will cross the central and northern Plains during this time, with showers and thunderstorms developing along the frontal boundaries and near the strengthening low pressure center. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a two slight risk areas for severe thunderstorms during the day tomorrow, one across a portions of the northern Plains, and another encompassing southern Wisconsin, northern Illinois, and much of lower Michigan. A slight risk of severe weather is also expected on Monday stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. The Weather Prediction Center has also outlined a slight risk area for potential flooding encompassing much of Wisconsin for Monday as well. Monsoonal moisture will continue to spark showers and thunderstorms across the Southwest, spreading northeast into the southern and Central Rockies for the second half of the weekend. However, fire weather will continue to be the topic across the remainder of the western U.S. over the next several days. Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of Idaho and southwest Wyoming today, while Fire Weather Watches are in effect for much of the Central Great Basin, as well as portions of California and Wyoming for Sunday. Furthermore, ongoing wildfires continue to pollute the air with large amounts of smoke. Air Quality Alerts continue across central California, as well as portions of Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php