Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 AM EDT Wed Aug 29 2018 Valid 12Z Wed Aug 29 2018 - 12Z Fri Aug 31 2018 ...A slight chance of severe thunderstorms near the Canadian border in the Northeast today... ...Flooding concerns continue across the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes region today... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above average over parts of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast... ...Fire Weather Concerns begin to resurface across the Western U.S.... A cold front is currently stretching from eastern Canada, southwest across the Great Lakes, Middle Mississippi Valley, and into the Southern Plains, dividing a strong ridge of high pressure across the southeastern third of the U.S., and a much cooler airmass moving southward from Canada in the northern U.S.. A deep surge of warm, moist air is being advected in from the Gulf of Mexico, which is clashing with the colder airmass to the north, resulting in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the frontal boundary. These showers and thunderstorms are being exacerbated by a strong area of low pressure embedded within the boundary which is currently located over the Great Lakes region and expected to move towards the Northeast throughout the day. Both the Storm Prediction Center and the Weather Prediction Center have outlined a narrow region along the frontal boundary, stretching from the Southern Plains into the Northeast, as having a marginal risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall today, respectively. A slight risk of severe storms is also outlined along the Canadian border in the Northeast today, due to it's proximity to the low pressure center and better convective potential during the afternoon. Flash Flood Watches are currently in place for portions of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the Upper Great Lakes region. A Flood Warning is also in place across south-central Wisconsin, where record flooding is ongoing along the Kickapoo River. Expect the threat of severe storms and excessive rainfall to drift slowly southeast with the frontal boundary over the next couple of days. The strong ridge in place across the southeast will make it difficult for the cold front to make much eastward progression over the coming days. Meanwhile, the deep surge of warm and humid air towards the boundary will couple with this ridge, resulting in a continued heat wave across the region. Much of the Northeast, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic are under Heat Advisories for today, as high temperatures are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s, with heat indices in the triple digits. Some locations may also meet or exceed daily record high temperatures today. Furthermore, many locations southeast of the cold front will likely meet or exceed the record for high minimum/morning temperature both this morning and Thursday morning. Elsewhere across the U.S., fire weather concerns are starting to creep back into the picture once again for portions of the Northwest. Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches are in place across much of Wyoming for today and Thursday due warm temperatures, low relative humidities, and gusty winds. Southwest Oregon is also still under an Air Quality Alert due to smoke from a nearby wildfire. Wix Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php