Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Thu Aug 30 2018 Valid 12Z Thu Aug 30 2018 - 12Z Sat Sep 01 2018 ...Showers and thunderstorms expected across the Mid Atlantic and Middle Mississippi Valley today... ...Heavy rain and severe weather possible for the Mississippi Valley tonight and Friday... ...Heat wave to continue across much of the southern and eastern U.S.... ...Fire weather concerns begin to resurface across the West... A strong cold front is slowly moving south and east, stretching from New England to the central and Southern Plains. As this boundary slows and stalls across the Mid-Atlantic and into the Middle Mississippi Valley today, more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected along the boundary. Some of these thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall--thus a marginal risk of flash flooding is possible from the Mid Atlantic inland through the Tennessee Valley today. Meanwhile, a portion of the front across the Southern and Central Plains will shift northward and transition into a warm front today, guided by a developing area of low pressure. As this frontal boundary continues to traverse eastward across the Plains and towards the Mississippi River Valley, thunderstorms capable of producing heavy rainfall are forecast for tonight night and Friday morning. The combination of heavy rain potential and already saturated soils have led to a slight risk of flash flooding for the middle Missouri Valley this evening and overnight. The Storm Prediction Center has also issued a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms stretching from Southern Minnesota southward into eastern Kansas and western Missouri during this time frame as well. By Friday, the cluster of storms will continue impacting the middle Mississippi Valley, especially as the center of low pressure continues to strengthen, and a deep layer of warm moist air is lifted northward from the Gulf of Mexico aiding in storm development. This will be further exasperated by another cold front dropping southeast from Canada into the northern Plains, bringing with it a surge of colder air. The clash of the two air masses could lead to strong storms across the Mid and Upper Mississippi Valleys as well as into the far western Plains. This area has been outlined as being in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms by the Storm Prediction Center for Friday. The Weather Prediction Center has also outlined much of the Upper and Mid Mississippi Valleys as being in a slight risk for flash flooding as well. With a strong upper level ridge being the dominant feature across the Southeast, locations ahead of the cold front will remain in a very warm and humid airmass. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through today from the the Southern Plains all the way into the coastal New England. A Heat Advisory remains in place across Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southern Massachusetts through this evening. Once the cold front is able to push through some of these regions by Friday, temperatures will cool significantly. Meanwhile, the presence of this moist and unstable airmass across the Southeast will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms here through the end of the week. Elsewhere across the U.S., fire weather concerns are rearing their head again across the mountainous regions of the West. Portions of Utah, Wyoming, and western Colorado are in a Red Flag Warning or Fire Weather Watch through today due to the combination of warm temperatures, low humidities, and high winds. Southwest Oregon is still under an Air Quality Alert due to smoke from a nearby wildfire as well. Wix Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php