Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 352 PM EDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Valid 00Z Tue Sep 11 2018 - 00Z Thu Sep 13 2018 ...Hurricane Florence has strengthened into a major Hurricane and is forecast to move west northwest toward the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic. Residents in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic should closely monitor Florence... ...Additional Heavy rains possible over parts of the Western to Central Gulf Coast... ...The recent widespread heavy rain event that has affected areas from the Upper to Mid Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic will be pushing through portions of the Northeast/New England tonight into Tuesday and coming to an end... ...Below average temperatures to spread into the Northwest and California...while the Fire Weather Threat remains Elevated to Critical from the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin... The latest NHC advisories indicate Florence has strengthened into a major Hurricane. The current forecast west northwesterly NHC track will position Florence off the Southeast/Southern Mid-Atlantic coast Wednesday night/early Thursday at the end of the short range forecast period. Continued northwest motion expected after the short range forecast period into the medium range period..with increasing life-threatening effects spreading inland into the Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic at this time. Please see the latest NHC advisories for updates to the forecast track and details of any watches and warnings associated with Florence. The end is in sight to the recent widespread heavy to excessive precipitation event that has stretched from the Upper to Mid Mississippi Valley...Mid West..Ohio Valley...Central Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic over the past week. Surface low pressure currently over the Eastern Great Lakes Monday afternoon will be pushing northeastward into the Northeast/New England tonight into Tuesday with heavy rain and locally excessive rain threat across this region. The widespread heavy rain threat from this system will diminish by Tuesday night. In the wake of the weakening system moving into New England...a surface frontal boundary will remain stationary from Southern New England...through the Mid-Atlantic...Southern Appalachians into the Lower Mississippi Valley and western Gulf coast. The most widespread heavy rains near this front expected over the western Gulf coast across South and eastern Texas into southern Louisiana...where heavy rains and localize flooding are possible over the next 2 days. Elsewhere along the front...scattered showers and thunderstorms with localized heavy rains are possible. This frontal boundary may become more active late in this forecast period as Florence approaches the coast and a predecessor rain area may develop along the front in a region of favorable right entrance region jet dynamics. An upper trof will be amplifying over the next few days along the west coast...helping to push a cold front inland and lower temperatures to below average from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and southward into Northern to Central California. To the east of this front..dry conditions and much above average temperatures will support a widespread area of Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions from potions of the Northern Rockies into the Great Basin. Oravec Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php