Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 412 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 2018 Valid 12Z Thu Sep 13 2018 - 12Z Sat Sep 15 2018 ...Hurricane Florence will bring storm surge, flash flooding, and destructive winds to much of the North and South Carolina coastline... ...Catastrophic flooding and dangerous storm surge expected over parts of the Carolina Coast... ...There is a slight risk of severe weather over parts of North Carolina Coast... ...Heavy rain possible along the Western/Central Gulf Coast... Hurricane Florence will begin impacting the Carolina Coast on Thursday. Hurricane Warnings are now in effect as hurricane force winds are expected to begin hitting the coast by late Thursday. The storm will produce extremely heavy rain across coastal North Carolina through Saturday. Heavy rain will also develop over parts of South Carolina and showers and thunderstorms move into Western North Carolina through Saturday. Storm surge is forecast to impact multiple locations along the Carolina coastline, and will be accompanied by large destructive waves. Please see the latest National Hurricane Center advisories for updates on the forecast track, impacts, and details of any watches and warnings associated with Hurricane Florence. Meanwhile, easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England into parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Eastern Ohio Valley through Friday morning. In addition, southeasterly flow off the Western Gulf of Mexico and upper-level energy will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast into parts of the Southern Plains through Friday evening into Saturday. Additionally, tropical moisture and daytime heating will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians through late Thursday night. Similarly, tropical moisture and daytime heating over Florida will trigger showers and thunderstorms over the area through Friday evening. Elsewhere, a front extending from the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies/Great Basin will move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley into parts of the Northern/Central Plains by Friday evening. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary over parts of Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes that will move eastward into the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley and parts of the Northern Plains by Friday evening. A reinforcing front extending from West-Central Canada into the Northern Intermountain Region will, likewise, move eastward into parts of the Northern Plains southwestward into parts of the Great Basin while mostly dissipating by Friday evening. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies that will move into parts of the Northern High Plains and dissipate by Friday. Furthermore, weak onshore flow will aid in producing rain with a few embedded daytime thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Pacific Northwest through Friday evening. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php