Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 356 PM EDT Fri Sep 14 2018 Valid 00Z Sat Sep 15 2018 - 00Z Mon Sep 17 2018 ...Florence to continue drifting slowly inland... ...Catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged river flooding likely over portions of the Carolinas and the southern and central Appalachians... ...Strong winds could spread inland into portions of the Carolinas over the next couple of days... ...Heavy rain accumulations expected for the Texas coast into south and central Texas... ...Elevated to critical fire weather conditions for portions of the Rockies and Great Basin... Florence, which made landfall earlier today over southeastern North Carolina near Cape Fear, has already produced numerous hurricane force wind gusts, as well as rainfall accumulations of a foot or more across portions of southeastern North Carolina. A life-threatening storm surge is already occurring along portions of the North Carolina Coast and is expected to continue into tonight. This surge is also likely along portions of the South Carolina coast. The greatest storm surge inundation is expected between Cape Fear and Cape Hatteras, including the Neusse and Pamlico rivers and the western Pamlico Sound. Also, an ongoing threat for a few tornadoes is expected to continue into tonight across portions of eastern North Carolina. Florence is forecast to continue drifting west-southwest, moving across South Carolina over the next 36-48 hours. Even through the storm is forecast to gradually weaken as it continues to move further inland, Florence is expected to remain a dangerous storm -- producing strong winds inland, as well as torrential rainfall rates, resulting in life-threatening, catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding over the Carolinas. As Florence begins to turn more to the north this weekend, this flooding threat is expected to spread north along the southern into the central Appalachians. Additionally, large swells affecting portions of the East Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf and rip currents. An elongated area of low pressure centered over the western Gulf of Mexico is forecast to move inland this period across South Texas and northeastern Mexico. While development into a tropical depression is not expected, this system is expected to produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall from the Texas coast into south-central Texas into the weekend. These rains may result in dangerous flash flooding situations. Out west, gusty winds and low relatively humidities will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions from the northern Rockies to Great Basin into the weekend. Red flag warnings are currently in place across much of central and southern Wyoming back into central and southern Nevada. Pereira Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php