Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 359 AM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 Valid 12Z Sun Sep 16 2018 - 12Z Tue Sep 18 2018 ...Catastrophic flash flooding and prolonged significant river flooding expected to continue over portions of the Carolinas and the Southern/Central Appalachians... ...Florence will travel farther west into the Carolinas then take a northerly turn across the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic... ...Heavy rain to impact portions of the Northeast... For the most recent information regarding the track and intensity of Tropical Storm Florence, visit www.hurricanes.gov. For all information on the rainfall associated with Florence and the excessive rainfall outlooks, visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Tropical Storm Florence will weaken as it continues a westerly path toward the Appalachians in the Carolinas. By late Sunday night and into early Monday morning, the center of Florence will turn north and move over the Appalachians--making it to the northern Mid-Atlantic by Tuesday morning. The axis of heavy rainfall is expected to occur across northern South Carolina, most of North Carolina--with the exception of northeastern portions of the state, and into western Virginia. On Monday, as Florence travels northward, the heavy rainfall will also shift northward away from North Carolina and into west-central Virginia and northern West Virginia and portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Furthermore, heavy rain will likely develop across the Northeast ahead of the center of Florence. By Tuesday, the heaviest rainfall is expected for southern New England. The rainfall that will impact the Carolinas today is expected to bring catastrophic flash flooding. Additionally, significant river flooding will continue across the Carolinas in addition the the southern and central Appalachians. As the heavy rainfall shifts westward into the mountains, landslides will become a hazard for those regions. A high risk of flash flooding will be possible today for northern South Carolina, west and central North Carolina and into western Virginia. By Monday, a moderate risk will be possible for the central Appalachians in Virginia, Maryland and West Virginia. Tornadoes embedded in the rain bands will also be a hazard on Sunday for northeast South Carolina/southeast North Carolina where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk. The heavy rain across south and west Texas will wind down today--with lingering showers and thunderstorms in these regions. A marginal risk of flash flooding will be possible. Elsewhere, the Pacific Northwest will experience rain across its region today as a mid-level trough digs across the region and brings a surface cold front. Because of this trough, cooler temperatures will be experienced across the West Coast and into the Intermountain West through the short term period. Ahead of a cold front moving across the Plains and Upper Midwest, high temperatures in the low 90s, which is 20 degrees above normal, will be possible today. Reinhart Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php