Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 401 PM EDT Sun Sep 16 2018 Valid 00Z Mon Sep 17 2018 - 00Z Wed Sep 19 2018 ...Catastrophic flash flooding, prolonged significant river flooding, and elevated risk of landslides expected in western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia... ...Moderate to heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Northeast... Even as Florence weakens and moves further west into the southern Appalachians, it will continue to produce very heavy rains in some locations -- further exacerbating dangerous conditions across portions of the eastern into the central Carolinas, while deteriorating conditions unfold further west across the southern into the central Appalachians. Heavy rains developing further west across the mountains are expected to elevate the risk for landslides in western North Carolina and southwestern Virginia late Sunday into Monday. In addition to heavy rains, there remains a threat for thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes across portions of northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina this afternoon and evening. On Monday, Florence is forecast to begin moving more progressively to the north, tracking west of the mountains into the Ohio valley. This more progressive track will lessen the threat for prolonged heavy rains. However, heavy accumulations resulting in flash-flooding are possible, especially along the western Virginia mountains into eastern West Virginia, western Maryland and southwestern Pennsylvania. By Monday night, with Florence forecast to begin turning to the northeast, the heavy rain threat is expected to spread from western Pennsylvania into New York, reaching into central New England early Tuesday. Elsewhere -- low pressure lingering near the Texas Big Bend region will continue to support showers and thunderstorms, capable of producing locally heavy amounts across portions of South into Central Texas through Monday. Further to the north -- a slow moving frontal boundary will provide the focus for showers and thunderstorms across the central Plains into the upper Midwest, Monday into Tuesday. Some of these storms may be strong to severe, with the Storm Prediction Center highlighting a Marginal Risk for severe weather from southeastern South Dakota into southern Minnesota and northern Iowa. Out west, dry conditions will persist, with elevated to critical fire weather conditions continuing from parts of the northern and central Rockies into the Great Basin. Pereira For all information on the rainfall associated with Florence and the excessive rainfall outlooks, visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php