Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 403 PM EDT Sat Sep 22 2018 Valid 00Z Sun Sep 23 2018 - 00Z Tue Sep 25 2018 ...Heavy to excessive rainfall shifts from eastern Texas/Oklahoma to the Lower Ohio Valley this weekend... ...Elevated to critical fire weather threat continues across the Central Great Basin and Central Rockies... ...Early season cold snap for New England... Noticeably cooler air is forecast for much of the northern-tier states this weekend. Temperatures will drop to near or below freezing across portions of the Northeast, with a handful of counties with frost advisories and freeze warnings. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to pass through the Northern Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region along a slow moving frontal boundary. Accumulations will generally be light with a few isolated areas up to 1 inch over the next couple of days. Scattered showers will move through the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain region as a cold front tracks eastward. Gusty winds, combined with the warmer and drier airmass in place over the Great Basin and Central Rockies, will increase the risk for wildfires. With persistent temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees above normal, Red Flag Warnings are in effect from Nevada/Idaho to western South Dakota. Once this system pushes into the Plains by late weekend/early Monday, it should tap into additional moisture increasing the threat for rainfall along a frontal boundary setting up in the northern Plains by the end of the short range period. Risks for heavy rain and areal flooding will continue across the south-central U.S. Deep moisture streaming northward along a quasi-stationary spanning from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic region will generate multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms. Areal averaged rain amounts on the order of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts, is forecast through Sunday from eastern Texas to the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley. Much of this area was placed within a slight risk for flash flooding/excessive rainfall. Down across the Southeast and Florida, expect mainly scattered showers and thunderstorms all weekend within a warm and humid airmass. Campbell Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php