Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 343 AM EDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 1 2018 - 12Z Wed Oct 3 2018 ...Heavy rain for the Desert Southwest and the Great Lakes region... Heavy rainfall has made a return to much of Arizona and southeastern California as Tropical Storm Rosa tracks towards the northeast, and it is forecast to make landfall on the northern Baja California coast Monday evening. There will be enough deep layer moisture to support widespread 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts through Tuesday night, with some additional showers and thunderstorms likely falling thereafter. This moisture will continue spreading inland across eastern Nevada, Utah, and western portions of Colorado and New Mexico. Flash flood watches are currently in affect for many of those areas, and the Weather Prediction Center currently has a moderate risk of excessive rainfall for parts of Arizona where the threat of flash flooding is greater. Another area that will likely get significant rainfall over the next couple of days will be from Iowa to Michigan and then extending eastward to northern New England through Tuesday night. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches, locally higher, are expected within this corridor, and a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall exists for parts of this region. This is associated with a surface low tracking eastward along a nearly stationary frontal boundary. Farther west across the northern Rockies and northern plains, the western portion of this same boundary is expected to result in some light rain across the Dakotas and high elevation snow across northwestern Montana near the Canadian border. Additional rainfall is likely over western Washington state on Monday as a plume of Pacific moisture surges inland across that region ahead of a surface low. D. Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php