Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 322 AM EDT Tue Oct 2 2018 Valid 12Z Tue Oct 2 2018 - 12Z Thu Oct 4 2018 ...Heavy rain for parts of the Southwest from Tropical Depression Rosa, and also across the Northeast U.S. on Tuesday... Heavy rainfall will continue to make weather headlines across much of the Desert Southwest on Tuesday as Tropical Depression Rosa tracks towards the northeast. There will be enough deep layer moisture to support widespread 1 to 3 inch rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning, with the heaviest rainfall expected over central Arizona where there is currently a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Flash flood watches are currently in effect from southeast California and southern Arizona, and extending northward through eastern Nevada and Utah, and even into southeast Idaho. Another area that will likely get some heavy rainfall will be from southern Michigan and extending eastward toward New England through Tuesday night. This will be associated with a wave of low pressure advancing east along a frontal zone. This entire system though is forecast to exit New England by early Wednesday. Some localized runoff problems and isolated flash flooding will be possible with this event, and some severe weather will be possible from eastern Ohio to southeast New York per the latest SPC convective outlook. Generally dry weather can be expected with temperatures above normal across the southern tier of the U.S. from Texas to the Mid-Atlantic region. Some scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along the immediate Gulf Coast and over the Florida peninsula, but the remainder of the South should see tranquil weather through the middle of the week. Hamrick Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php