Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 406 AM EDT Sun Oct 07 2018 Valid 12Z Sun Oct 07 2018 - 12Z Tue Oct 09 2018 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains... ...Heavy rain possible from the Southern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes... ...Heavy rain possible over the Florida Keys due to Potential Tropical Cyclone FOURTEEN... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the Northern/Central Plains... A front extending from the Northeast southwestward to the Western Ohio Valley then move southerly from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains will be quasi-stationary while a wave of low pressure over the Central High Plains, late Sunday night, will move northward to parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near the boundary from the Lower Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley southward to Southern Plains that will end temporarily over the Lower Great Lakes overnight Sunday before returning on Monday afternoon into evening. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Southern Plains through Tuesday. Furthermore, rain will develop over parts of the Northern Plains on Sunday afternoon that will expand into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley overnight Sunday continuing into Tuesday. As a warm front lifts northward on Sunday into Monday evening, showers and thunderstorms will move northward into the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley from Sunday into Tuesday. In addition, rain will develop over parts of the Northeast that will move off the Northeast Coast by Monday morning. Tropical like moisture and daytime heating will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over the Southeast/Southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southern Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Tuesday. Additionally, moisture flowing northward out of the Gulf of Mexico will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Monday evening. Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough over the southwestern portion of the country will form an upper-level low that will slowly move eastward to the Southwest/Southern Rockies by Monday evening. The energy will aid in developing rain with embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest that will expand into parts of the Southern Rockies by Sunday evening, continuing over the region through Tuesday. Rain and higher elevations snow will develop over parts of the Great Basin and the Northern/Central Rockies that will continue through Monday evening. Light snow may develop over parts of the Northern High Plains on Sunday into Monday evening. Elsewhere, onshore flow will aid in developing rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Sunday that will continue through Monday evening. Potential tropical cyclone FOURTEEN will is forecast to develop into a tropical storm by Sunday evening over the Northwestern Caribbean that will move northward into the Gulf of Mexico by Monday afternoon into evening. Showers and thunderstorms may develop over parts of the Florida Keys overnight Sunday into Monday evening. Please see the latest advisory on FOURTEEN from the National Hurricane Center for the track and intensity. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php