Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 358 AM EDT Mon Oct 08 2018 Valid 12Z Mon Oct 08 2018 - 12Z Wed Oct 10 2018 ...There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern High Plains... ...Heavy rain possible from parts of the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains... ...T. S. Michael is forecast to strengthen while moving northward into the Gulf of Mexico... ...Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the Northern/Central Plains... A front extending from the Northern Mid-Atlantic to the Central Plains then roughly southward to Southern High Plains will be quasi-stationary from the Great Lakes to the Southern Plains through Wednesday. The northeastern parts of the boundary will lift northward from the Northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast near the Canadian border. The southern half will move slowly eastward to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains by Wednesday. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms along and near the front from parts of the Great Lakes to the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains to the Southern Plains that will continue over parts of the region through Wednesday. The showers and thunderstorms will expand from the Great Lakes into the Northeast on Monday morning into Tuesday evening. Just north of the front, rain will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains into parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes through Wednesday. On Tuesday morning snow will develop over parts of the Northern High Plains that will move into parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. In addition, tropical moisture and daytime heating will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast into the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Tuesday evening. Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough over the Rockies will remain quasi-stationary through Wednesday. The energy will aid in producing rain and higher elevation snow over parts of the Central Rockies and parts of the Great Basin/Southwest that will continue over the area through Wednesday. Weak onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest will aid in producing rain over the Northwest through Monday evening. Overnight Monday additional upper-level energy will move southeastward from Western Canada into the Great Basin by Wednesday. Rain will expand into parts of the Northern Intermountain Region with snow developing over the higher elevations by Tuesday morning and into parts of the Northern Rockies by Tuesday night into Wednesday. T. S. Michael is forecast to move northward into the Gulf of Mexico while strengthening and continue to move northward to near the Eastern Gulf Coast by Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorm associated with Michael will begin to impact the Eastern Gulf Coast Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Please check the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center for the most up to date forecast on storm track and intensity. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php